Opening day for the NCAA Division I Softball Tournament is Friday, May 17 with all games broadcast on ESPN platforms. Most day-one games between No. 1 and No. 4 seeds will not be compelling viewing, but there should be plenty of competitive matchups on opening day between the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds at each site. Here are the top five games that every softball fan should tune in to watch.
San Diego State Aztecs (31-18, 15-7 MWC) vs Virginia Tech Hokies (39-12-1, 18-6 ACC)
Regional: Los Angeles, Calif.
Time and TV/Streaming: 6 p.m. ET on ESPNU
San Diego State went 3-0 in last year’s Los Angeles regional to advance to the Salt Lake City Super Regional. They pushed Utah to three games once they got there. The question is whether the Aztecs can do it again.
While UCLA wants to prove that its 0-2 showing at home was a fluke last postseason, SDSU and Virginia Tech will have something to say about that. The winner of this game will probably advance to face the Bruins on Saturday in Game 3.
Massey Ratings tilt in favor of the Hokies, giving them a 69 percent win probability with a likely score of 5-3. There are good reasons for that.
Virginia Tech has a team batting average of .342 compared to SDSU’s .285. The Hokies’ offense isn’t just consistent, either. It packs a lot of power with six players hitting double-digit home runs led by Cori McMillan with 20. Virginia Tech launched 113 balls out of the park compared to just 25 by the Aztecs.
SDSU has been slightly better in the circle this season albeit in an easier conference. The Aztecs’ top three pitchers by innings pitched all have ERAs of 2.63 or lower and WHIPs of 1.31 or lower. As a staff, they gave up just 21 long balls this season. They will need to be on point against the potent Hokies offense.
Utah Utes (34-20, 10-13 Pac-12) vs South Carolina Gameco*cks (34-22, 8-16 SEC)
Regional: Durham, NC
Time and TV/Streaming: Noon ET on ESPN+
If you like toss-ups, this is the game to watch. Massey gives Utah the edge but only with a 3-2 score and a 55 percent win probability. The median score is actually 3-3.
The Utes looked destined to miss the postseason altogether just a year after getting to the Women’s College World Series. Then, they found their groove and went on a run at the end of the regular season and into the Pac-12 Tournament. It’s a new season now.
South Carolina brought in former Stanford pitcher Alana Vawter in the offseason. Last year, she and NiJaree Canady were 1A and 1B for the Cardinal in their run to the national semifinals. She has led the Gameco*cks’ staff with a team-high 172 1/3 innings pitched.
This will be strength-against-strength. Utah has a much better offense than South Carolina. The Utes hit .307 vs the Gameco*cks’ .247. They outslug South Carolina .418 to .374. They get on base at a better clip with .370 OBP compared to the Gameco*cks’ .347. The one area that South Carolina excels at is home runs where it leads Utah 33 to 22.
Although Utah’s Mariah Lopez has improved as the season progressed, South Carolina has two pitchers with ERAs just above 2.00. Vawter is at 2.03 and Jori Heard is at 2.01. Sage Mardjetko isn’t too far away at 2.52. Lopez is the only Ute with an ERA below 3.53. Her 2.29 has come in 204 2/3 innings of work while South Carolina has been able to spread innings among its top three pitchers. The question will be whether the Utes’ bullpen can stack up against the Gameco*cks’ strength in the circle.
Penn State Nittany Lions (34-18, 12-11 Big Ten) vs Texas State Bobcats (45-13, 18-6 Sun Belt)
Regional: College Station, Tex.
Time and TV/Streaming: 4 p.m. ET on ESPNU
This game is an opportunity for fans to see how good mid-major teams can be. Texas State has already proven that it can beat Penn State. In fact, the Bobcats did it three times when they swept the Nittany Lions at home during the regular season. The three wins came in fairly dominant fashion with only the second one being close.
It wasn’t the only major conference team that TSU handled, either. The Bobcats split two games against Texas Tech, dominated Arizona State and Ohio State, defeated both Texas A&M and Baylor, and played overall No. 1 seed Texas to 1-0 and 6-4 losses.
Penn State has the opportunity to get some revenge, but it will be an uphill climb. The Bobcats went 13-6 against other tournament teams while the Nittany Lions were 9-9.
Miami (OH) Redhawks (48-7, 26-1 MAC) vs Virginia Cavaliers (32-18, 15-9 ACC)
Regional: Knoxville, Tenn.
Time and TV/Streaming: Noon ET on ESPN+
This is the game to watch for offense. Miami has two of the nation’s top sluggers in Karli Spaid and Jenna Golembiewski. Spaid is first in Division I in slugging percentage (1.154), home runs per game (.65), and total home runs (36). Golembiewski is second in all three categories.
Miami’s entire lineup is reliable and built on power. The team has a combined .359 average. Spaid hits .426 and Golembiewski is at .407. Those are first and second on the team. As a group, the Redhawks hit 159 home runs this season. Seven of their hitters have double-digit home runs.
Virginia is not nearly as strong offensively. The Cavaliers hit .248 as a group and have a .327 OBP. The Redhawks’ OBP is .460. UV has fewer home runs as a team (32) than Spaid does as an individual.
The Cavaliers have the advantage in the circle. All of the Redhawks’ pitchers have ERAs of at least 3.89 except Marah Donahoe, but she pitched just one inning all season. All three of Virginia’s primary pitchers have ERAs of 2.68 or less. Eden Bigham, who led UV with 133 IP, has a 2.47 ERA.
The question for Miami is whether it can produce at the same level against this kind of pitching. Massey Ratings predict that it can, giving the Redhawks a 59 percent win probability with the most likely result being a 5-4 win.
Cleveland State Vikings (22-24, 14-10 Horizon) at Oklahoma Sooners (49-6, 22-5 Big 12)
Regional: Norman, Okla.
Time and TV/Streaming: 8 p.m. ET on ESPNU
This will not be a competitive game. The three-time defending champions will likely run-rule the visitors. It’s still difficult to ignore the opening game of a team like Oklahoma. The Sooners have earned their place at the center of the sport.
The Vikings are the only team in the field with a losing overall record, but they are a compelling story. They went into their tournament knowing they needed to win it to go to the postseason. It took an “if necessary” game against Northern Kentucky, but CSU did what it needed to do to take its first Horizon League title since 2009.
